Medicare Part B Premium for 2027: What the Trustees Report Projects (It's Not Official Yet)

If you're on Medicare, one number matters almost as much as your Social Security COLA: next year's Part B premium, which for most beneficiaries gets deducted straight out of that same monthly check. A number now exists for 2027 — but it comes with an important asterisk.

What the Trustees Report actually says

The 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects that the standard monthly Part B premium will rise from $202.90 in 2026 to approximately $209.50 in 2027 — an increase of about $6.60, or roughly 3.25%. If it holds, that would be one of the smaller year-over-year increases in recent memory, well below the nearly 10% jump beneficiaries saw between 2025 and 2026.

The Part B annual deductible, $283 in 2026, is also projected to rise for 2027, though estimates for the exact figure vary by source — treat any specific deductible number you see right now as a rough planning figure rather than a locked-in one.

Why "projected" is doing a lot of work here

This number does not come from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), which is the agency that actually sets and announces Medicare premiums. It comes from the Medicare Trustees' annual actuarial report, which forecasts future costs based on projected spending, enrollment, and utilization trends — months before CMS finalizes anything.

That gap between projection and reality can be significant. Last year's Trustees Report, published in 2025, projected the 2027 premium at $218.60. This year's report revised that figure down by about $9, to $209.50 — a meaningful swing for a projection covering the very same year. Going back further, the 2025 Trustees Report's estimate for the 2026 premium ($206.50) ended up several dollars higher than what CMS actually confirmed ($202.90).

In short: the Trustees' number is the best public estimate available right now, but it has moved by high single digits in both directions in recent years. Some private analysts who track the Trustees' historical accuracy expect the real 2027 number could land somewhat higher than $209.50, given a pattern of underestimating costs in some recent cycles.

When will the real number come out?

CMS typically confirms the official Part B premium, deductible, and IRMAA brackets for the coming year in November — usually a few weeks before Medicare's Annual Election Period ends. For 2027, that means the confirmed figure is expected sometime in November 2026, about a month after the Social Security COLA itself is announced on October 14.

How this connects to your COLA

Most Medicare beneficiaries have their Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security check, so a premium increase and a COLA increase land on the same statement. A federal rule called "hold harmless" protects most current Social Security recipients from having their net benefit go down because of a Part B premium increase — in practice, it limits how much of your COLA a premium hike can eat into, though it doesn't guarantee your entire COLA reaches your bank account untouched.

With a 2027 COLA currently projected in the 3.5%–3.6% range and a Part B premium increase currently projected at roughly 3.25%, most beneficiaries should still see a net increase in their check — but exactly how much depends on your own benefit amount and premium, not the national averages.

If you pay an income-related surcharge (IRMAA)

Higher earners pay an additional Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount on top of the standard premium. In 2026, IRMAA surcharges range from about $81.20 a month (for individuals with 2024 income between $109,000 and $137,000) up to $487 a month (for individuals at or above $500,000). Your 2027 IRMAA bracket will be based on your 2025 tax return, which most people have already filed. Most IRMAA income thresholds are indexed to inflation each year, except for the top bracket, which stays fixed at $500,000 (individual) / $750,000 (joint) through 2028.

What to actually do with this information

• Use $209.50 as a planning estimate, not a budget line. It's a reasonable starting point for a 2027 budget, but build in a buffer of a few dollars either direction.

• Don't assume your full COLA is "extra" spending money. Between the Part B premium increase and any IRMAA bracket you fall into, a meaningful share of your raise may already be spoken for before it reaches your account.

• Watch for the official CMS announcement in November. That's when the estimate becomes a fact — this article will be updated once it does.

• Check your IRMAA bracket now if your income is near a threshold. Since 2025 tax return data sets your 2027 bracket, there's no more room to adjust after the fact — but knowing where you stand helps you plan cash flow.

The bottom line

The 2027 Medicare Part B premium is projected at $209.50, up from $202.90 — a moderate increase compared to recent years, according to the government's own actuaries. But "projected" is the key word: the same report has been revised by close to $10 in a single year before. The real number arrives with CMS's official announcement in November 2026, alongside the finalized deductible and IRMAA brackets.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute official financial, legal, tax, or healthcare advice. The 2027 Medicare Part B premium, deductible, and IRMAA figures discussed in this article are based on projections from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and remain subject to change. Official premiums and coverage terms are established solely by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), typically announced in November. Individual costs may vary depending on your specific income, Social Security benefit status, and coverage choices. For official, personalized guidance, please visit Medicare.gov or consult a licensed health insurance professional.